Vonovia: Expropriation Debate Overshadows Solid Numbers
On September 20, Die Linke (The Left) won the Berlin House of Representatives election with 25.7%. Lead candidate Elif Eralp wants to nationalize corporations with more than 3,000 apartments in the capital. That would hit Vonovia hard, as the Bochum-based company owns around 138,000 apartments in Berlin through its subsidiary Deutsche Wohnen. The party is discussing compensation of only 40 to 60% of market value, but nothing has been finalized. An election victory does not yet constitute a majority. Mathematically, a coalition of the CDU, the Greens, and the SPD would also be sufficient. In addition, Chancellor Merz announced a law against expropriation.
On August 5, Vonovia presented its figures for the first half of 2026. Adjusted EBITDA rose 2.4% to EUR 1,456.5 million, and the rental business rose 3.5% to EUR 1,268.6 million. The vacancy rate stood at just 2.3%. The Value-Add segment, which includes the handyman and energy businesses, posted strong growth, with earnings climbing 27.6% to EUR 128.5 million. Operations are going well. However, rising interest rates are weighing on earnings. The adjusted net financial result deteriorated to EUR -406.3 million. By comparison, it stood at EUR -363.3 million a year earlier.
Precautions have been taken regarding financing. Since the beginning of the year, Vonovia has refinanced approximately EUR 4.4 billion at a coupon rate of about 3.2% with an average maturity of 8 years. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 46.0% and is expected to fall to around 40% by the end of 2028. However, the target for organic rental growth has been lowered from 4.2% to around 4%. On September 22, the stock briefly dipped to EUR 17.06. The net asset value according to EPRA stood at EUR 46.22 per share as of June 30. This figure is not guaranteed. If interest rates fall again, that would work in the Bochum-based company’s favour. The discount, however, is high.
Lahontan Gold: Acquisition, New Drilling and Gold in Old Tailings
Between 1988 and 1995, 359,202 ounces of gold and 702,067 ounces of silver were mined at the Santa Fe mine on Nevada’s Walker Lane. After that, the open-pit mine fell silent. Lahontan Gold aims to awaken the mine from its slumber; the restart is planned for 2027. The mineral resource base for this has grown. On August 17, the company updated its resource estimate and now reports 1,195,000 ounces of gold equivalent in the “indicated” category, plus 1,190,000 ounces in the “inferred” category, a 22% increase from 2024. The foundation is solid.
On September 21, a drill rig arrived at West Santa Fe, located about 13 km away. The plan is to drill approximately 3,500 m across 20 holes. In February, the company reported results from the first drilling campaign in December 2025: 36.6 m grading 3.11 g/t gold equivalent from surface. Five days earlier, the company had announced its intention to acquire Emergent Metals. If the deal goes through, West Santa Fe will belong entirely to Lahontan Gold. Outstanding payments of approximately USD 1.73 million for the remaining shares will then be waived, as will the 1% royalties on West Santa Fe and the York Claims. The land package will then grow to over 93 km².
How much gold remains in the four historic heap leach pads? On September 15, another answer emerged. Ten Sonic drill holes on Heap Leach Pad Two averaged 0.54 g/t gold equivalent. Based on historical yields, only 0.32 g/t had been expected. As early as September 1, an adjacent heap leach pad, previously considered low-grade, had yielded 1.96 g/t. The fact that the material is already mined and lies on the surface plays into Lahontan’s hands. In September, a mining engineer, a head of exploration and an investor relations specialist also joined the team. Starting in October, Billy Choi is set to take full charge of finances.
Coinbase: Tailwind from the SEC
On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to clear a procedural hurdle in the US Senate. It fell short by 11 votes of the required 60. Observers do not see a realistic new opportunity until 2027. This is a bitter blow for Coinbase, as its trading business is directly tied to these regulations. Two days later, the SEC granted a 5-year exemption for trading tokenized stocks, albeit under strict conditions. Goldman Sachs counts Coinbase among the main beneficiaries because its custody services, tokenization technology, and its own Base network are already in place. If the launch is successful, Coinbase would have a head start.
The second quarter was not a standout. Total revenue fell to USD 1.22 billion, and the bottom line showed a loss of approximately USD 359 million. However, Coinbase set a record with a 10.3% share of global crypto spot trading. By comparison, the figure was 9.1% in the first quarter. Subscriptions and services generated USD 555 million, accounting for 48% of net revenue. Overall, 88% of net revenue no longer comes from Bitcoin spot trading. The cost forecast for the full year has been lowered to USD 4.20 to 4.45 billion. The company’s foundation has broadened.
On September 21, Coinbase announced that US retail investors will be able to apply for allocations in future initial public offerings (IPOs). Smart ring manufacturer Oura will be the first to participate. There is no guarantee of allocation. A partnership with Stablecore was launched as early as September 16. Through this service provider, more than 3,000 US regional banks and credit unions could potentially offer Coinbase’s crypto services. If these building blocks integrate successfully, the crypto exchange could gradually become less vulnerable to market volatility. Headwinds are coming from interest rates. Most traders expect the Fed to raise rates in October. The restructuring is proceeding nonetheless.
The three companies profiled could hardly be more different, yet they all serve as a hedge against inflation. Vonovia is delivering solid operating results and is available at a significant discount. However, the debate over expropriation, interest rates, and regulation is capping investor enthusiasm for the Bochum-based company. Lahontan Gold is on its way to becoming a producer; its mineral resource is growing, and the company has once again skillfully expanded through an acquisition. Added to this are recoverable tailings projects. Coinbase has tailwinds from the SEC and, thanks to new banking partnerships, is evolving from a pure crypto trader into a more broadly positioned infrastructure provider. Nevertheless, the company remains sensitive to interest rates.
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