The US arrest of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, and his wife, Cilia Flores, on early Saturday morning, coupled with US president Trump’s confidence in being able to serve American interests by revitalizing Venezuela’s lagging oil industry – despite housing the world’s largest reserves – has spawned a flurry of takes on what lies in store for the global oil market over the short and medium-term.
While voices on the right. such as Fox, have been quick to concede US influence over the ultimate fate of Venezuela’s oil reserves, publications on the left, such as CNBC, have been more reserved in their affirmations, estimating production growth in the hundreds of thousands of barrels per day over the next year – up from about 800,000 bopd currently -contingent on the dropping of existing US sanctions and a tidy transition of power as the Venezuelan government reorients in Maduro’s absence.
Whichever side of the debate you find yourself on, long-term investors will recognize this tense moment as an example in the ever-growing string of disasters the stock market has weathered, going back more than a century, on its way to delivering inflation-beating returns.
This perspective makes the US’s latest lurch into imperialism a good opportunity to scan the oil market for underpriced stocks positioned for a re-rating once market sentiment normalizes and investors remember that our dependance on oil is only expected to begin to fall sometime after 2050 – according to data from S&P Global – leaving about a 2.5-decade runway to harvest value from the sector in your portfolio.
To expedite due diligence for readers keen on increasing their leverage to the oil price, I used The Globe and Mail’s screener to isolate stocks with positive price-to-earnings ratios and negative year-over-year (YoY) returns, with the intention of highlighting profitable operations in the midst of market pessimism they arguably do not deserve. Here are the top three oil stocks populated in the screener, ordered by YoY loss:
- Greenfire Resources, -31.92 per cent.
- Kolibri Global Energy, -42.91 per cent.
- Arrow Exploration, -44.44 per cent.
Let’s take a closer look at each company’s case for value.
Greenfire Resources
Our first oil stock prospective for a value play is Greenfire Resources, market capitalization C$437.70 million, an oil sands producer focused on efficiently increasing output across its long-life, low-decline portfolio in Alberta’s Athabasca region.
Greenfire ended 2024 with 409 million barrels of oil in estimated proven and probable reserves, valued at US$2.5 billion, more than 5 times its current market capitalization, representing a multi-generational 58 years of production.
The company is planning to drill up to 24 wells over the coming years with eyes on bringing more of its vast resources to market, with a 13-well program kicked off in November 2025 expected to deliver first oil in Q4 2026, followed by expected production increases in Q2 2027 and Q1 2028.
Operations are in a position of strength to follow through on these plans, growing net income from $121.4 million in 2024 to $134.7 million over the trailing twelve months, ending Q3 2025 with adjusted free cash flow of $20.1 million, down slightly from $22.9 million YoY, plus $114.6 million in cash and equivalents to strategically deploy.
The broader market has yet to find conviction in the company’s well-funded path forward, pushing Greenfire Resources stock (TSX:GFR) into a 31.92 per cent loss YoY, setting the stage for an experienced leadership team to earn a re-rating through improvements on the income statement.
Kolibri Global Energy
Our second oil stock to watch is Kolibri Global Energy, market capitalization C$174.66 million, a US oil and gas operator developing proved and probable reserves at its Tishomingo Field in Oklahoma estimated at 53.6 million barrels of oil, valued at US$691 million, with proved reserves growing by 24 per cent in 2024.
Tishomingo production, diversified across oil (66 per cent), natural gas liquids (19 per cent) and gas (15 per cent), grew by 40 per cent YoY to 4,254 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in Q3 2025 – up from about 1,000 boe/d at the end of 2021 – primarily driven by new wells, yielding net income of US$3.6 million, which has remained consistent since 2021, and adjusted EBITDA of US$11.1 million, which is on track to grow by 8 times from 2021 to 2025, according to management estimates.
According to Kolibri’s latest investor presentation, Tishomingo offers extensive upside potential, including areas with proven production or geology similar to proved acreage, positioning the company to continue its history of efficient and exponential revenue growth, which has soared from US$19.1 million in 2021 to US$74.5 million in 2024.
Backed by a leadership team with decades of oil and gas expertise from acquisition to production, Kolibri is confident in being able to justify shareholder value through growing production, revenue and cash flow for years to come.
Investors in Kolibri Global Energy (TSX:KEI) aren’t so sure, sporting a 42.91 per cent loss YoY, offering readers a high-quality operation at an out-of-favour price to play fossil fuel’s glacially slow decline.
Arrow Exploration
Rounding off our trio of oil stocks with solid value theses is Arrow Exploration, market capitalization C$71.47 million, an oil producer in Colombia developing an underexplored 100-per-cent-owned portfolio in some of the country’s most active basins, including Llanos, Putumayo and the Middle Magdalena Valley.
Arrow’s 13.62 million boe in proved and probable reserves as of 2024 – valued at US$285 million as of June 2025 – has more than doubled since 2022 and are on pace for further growth thanks to new development and exploration wells.
The company completed three news wells in Q3 2025 while achieving average production of 4,214 boe/d, up from 4,214 boe/d YoY, and net income of US$3.08 million, which has been positive in four out of the past five quarters and three out of the past four fiscal years – as well as over the trailing twelve months – demonstrating leadership’s ability to remain profitable in a highly volatile oil price environment marked by high inflation, US president Trump’s tariff regime and his administration’s recent strong-arming in Venezuela.
With additional wells put on production towards the end of 2025, Arrow’s leadership team, thoroughly familiar with building energy businesses from the boardroom to the field, has its sights set on harvesting more exploration and development upside in 2026.
Investors, as with our previous pair of profiles, broadly disagree, depreciating Arrow Exploration stock (TSXV:AXL) by 44.44 per cent YoY, pricing the company’s assets substantially below fair value.
Takeaway
As taught by all great investors, in their own unique fashions, a focus on fundamentals is the most reliable way to optimize your participation in the stock market, regardless of industry, requiring an allegiance to companies that favour balance sheets and income statements as the ultimate arbiters of returns, better equipping them to weather short-term stretches of economic turmoil, act within them from a position of strength, and more durably pave the road to long-term value creation.
Join the discussion: Find out what investors are saying about these oil stocks on the Greenfire Resources Ltd., Kolibri Global Energy Inc. and Arrow Exploration Corp. Bullboards and make sure to explore the rest of Stockhouse’s stock forums and message boards.
*Data as of January 7, 2026.
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