The price of uranium has quadrupled since 2020, registering at US$78.05 per pound as of November 12, driven by tight supply, the accelerating green energy transition and a frantic scramble among leading producers and their allies to secure reliable supply.
Uranium is valuable thanks to its unmatched energy density, with 1 kilogram capable of producing 2 to 3 million times more power than the same weight in oil or coal, according to the European Nuclear Society.
This output is further advantaged by being free of carbon emissions thanks to nuclear fission, the process of splitting uranium atoms to release energy, which requires nothing more than boiling water to achieve its desired end.
Uranium’s comparative leap in energy efficiency, coupled with the urgency of meeting 2050 net-zero emissions goals, makes the critical mineral one of the most prospective commodities to invest in over the long term, making it imperative for investors to understand what is affecting prices today.
To that end, let’s focus on top uranium producers to keep our insights aligned with supply and how it’s positioned to flow across the world.
Why is uranium production falling in Kazakhstan?
We begin in Kazakhstan, by far the world’s largest uranium supplier, where Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producing company, is putting plans in place to reduce output by 10 per cent in 2026, citing insufficient demand, representing about 8 million pounds of uranium or 5 per cent of primary global supply.
The company is pairing this reduction with a large-scale exploration program to harvest upside, potentially expand bookable resources and offset an expected near-term drop in revenue.
Kazakhstan’s recent partnership with the US, coupled with its friendliness towards conflict-prone nations, including China and Russia – the latter hosting almost one third of global enrichment capacity – situates the nation at the intersection of current geopolitical tensions, potentially allowing it to benefit from both sides of the ideological divide.
What’s behind Canada’s critical mineral development ramp-up?
Next, we turn our attention to Canada, where Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget, tabled earlier this month, has set billions aside for critical mineral mining, including issuing loans to and taking equity stakes in early-stage projects, as well as signing offtake agreements with operators near production, eyeing to dethrone China’s leadership position in minerals essential to the energy transition.
With uranium classified under Canada’s official list of critical minerals, the country ranking as the world’s second-largest producer in 2024, and uranium’s ongoing deficit expected to worsen over the coming decade, investors are being presented with a strong thesis for continued upward price pressure to put in play by identifying attractive Canadian projects across the mining lifecycle.
What’s propelling Africa’s largest uranium producer?
Moving right along, we take a peak into Namibia, Africa’s largest producer and the world’s third-largest in 2024, finding that the country’s top mines have all returned to production following shutdowns during the COVID pandemic. These include:
- The Langer Heinrich mine – 75 per cent owned by Paladin (TSX:PDN) – which yielded Q1 2026 production of 1,066,496 pounds U3O8, and is undergoing a ramp-up into 2027 expected to materially increase total mined material and extend its 17-year operating life.
- The Rössing mine – owned by China National Nuclear Corporation – one of the world’s largest producing open-pit mines, whose operating life was recently extended into 2036.
- The Husab mine – 90 per cent owned by China General Nuclear – which stands as the largest open-pit uranium operation, generating revenue of N$8.8 billion in its past fiscal year from production of 5,300 tons U3O8, out of a total capacity of 6,000 tons, with a mine life projected to extend into 2044.
These globally relevant mines are aligned with favorable policy from the Namibian government reinforcing nuclear power’s role at the heart of national security, in addition to the country’s willingness to harness Russian refining capacity to evolve into the downstream market, highlighting how Namibia is betting big on uranium to raise its status on the global stage.
Counterintuitively, enthusiasm within the Namibian market may contribute to a lower uranium price, considering that the emerging nation has a track record of increasing production, regardless of price fluctuations, prioritizing market share over profitability.
Will Australia unite to unlock its top global uranium resource?
We end our survey of how top uranium producers are affecting the commodity’s price with a look at Australia, home to the world’s largest uranium resource, equivalent to about one third of the global total, and the fourth-largest production output in 2024 coming in at 4,598 tons.
Government officials are currently engaged in a heated debate about whether or not to lift Western Australia’s (WA) uranium mining ban, instituted in 2017, in a move that could unlock more than A$1 billion worth of uranium annually. Similar prohibitions in Queensland, which rivals WA’s deposits, as well as in Victoria and New South Wales, only compound the value creation potential.
Many view the lifting of the WA ban as an essential driver behind the success of AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership between the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia, included the latter’s acquisition of numerous nuclear submarines to reinforce peace in the Indo-Pacific.
With parliamentary recommendations on the ban expected by late 2026, the Australian uranium market may be headed for an inflection point over the next few years, allowing it to significantly dwindle Canada’s lead as the top western supplier.
Tying it all together
Leading institutions, including RBC and the Nuclear Energy Agency, hold that uranium demand is at the beginning of a multi-generational tailwind supported by global decarbonization, granting companies a firm floor on which to build value.
However, these companies will be at the mercy of fluctuations in the uranium price, which will certainty arise, as macroeconomic forces react to the inevitable chaos of more than 8 billion people sharing space and trying to make the most of their time.
All this is to say that commodities are an essential component of a diversified portfolio, but should not be given an outsized piece of the pie – as evidenced by the iShares MSCI World Index ETF holding only a 6.3 per cent allocation split between energy and materials – unless your thesis is aligned with your long-term financial goals and grants you enough conviction to sleep soundly at night.
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