Newmont: Between a Record Quarter and Challenges
Newmont kicked off fiscal year 2026 with an impressive quarter. The world’s largest gold producer reported free cash flow of USD 3.14 billion—the highest in the company’s history—and exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations by more than 33%. Operating cash flow reached USD 3.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA stood at USD 5.2 billion. Despite adverse conditions, including wildfires in Boddington and extreme snowfall at Brucejack, the company confirmed its annual production forecast of 5.3 million ounces. The realized average gold price of USD 4,900 per ounce drove revenue up to USD 7.3 billion.
Capital returns remain a central element of the company’s strategy. Following the completion of the previous share repurchase program, an additional USD 6 billion was authorized. As early as the first quarter, USD 2.7 billion was returned to shareholders. In mid-June, Newmont also announced changes to its leadership team. Brian Tabolt will become the new CFO effective July 1; Mark Rodgers will take over as COO; and David Thornton will be CTO. These appointments are part of the strategic realignment under CEO Natascha Viljoen, who is further restructuring the Executive Leadership Team.
The company currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 13.5. Analysts expect significant earnings growth of up to 50% for the current year. On the other hand, market observers also see uncertainties. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected to rise initially to about USD 1,680 per ounce due to higher energy costs and increased taxes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove the oil price above USD 100. With the peace agreement, energy prices have fallen significantly, thereby dampening inflation expectations. The expected production trough in 2026, only moderate growth in the following years, and the recent weakness in the gold price are the reasons for the stock’s pullback; it is currently trading at around USD 108.44.
Desert Gold: A Two-Stage Value Creation Opportunity in West Africa
Desert Gold has secured a 440 km² land package within the prolific Senegal-Mali Shear Zone and is surrounded by industry heavyweights Barrick Mining, B2Gold, and Endeavour Mining. The company has already outlined 1.22 million ounces of gold resources and has intersected grades exceeding 16 g/t in certain drill holes. Four mineralized corridors run through the area, and the structural contacts suggest a mineral system that could be significantly larger than what has been documented to date. Its strategic location between processing facilities operated by major mining companies is no coincidence, but rather the result of years of systematic land consolidation. Recent drilling results reinforce the view that the project may host substantial additional mineralization, potentially well beyond the current resource estimate.
The most strategic move is the production roadmap. Instead of getting stuck in years of feasibility studies, the company starts with a modular gravity processing plant capable of handling 240 tonnes per day. The preliminary economic assessment (PEA) estimates a net present value (NPV) of USD 61 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 57%. Capital expenditures are relatively modest, at approximately USD 20 million. The initial plan is to mine oxidized zones via open-pit mining, which keeps technical risk low. The equipment is en route by sea, with commissioning targeted for July. Cash flow from this initial phase is expected to be reinvested directly into the next exploration phases. Supply bottlenecks in Mali will be mitigated through proactive inventory management and sourcing from Senegal.
However, another game-changer could lie beyond Mali. In Côte d’Ivoire, Desert Gold holds an option on the Tiegba Gold project. The 297 km² property features a substantial but untested 4.2 x 2.1 km gold anomaly. Newcrest Mining had once identified this structure but never investigated it in detail. As soon as final approval is granted, the first drills are scheduled to begin operations later this year. The attractiveness of Côte d’Ivoire as a jurisdiction is undisputed, and this is precisely where the second value driver lies. A discovery in this promising belt would instantly elevate the company to the status of a regionally diversified player. Once gold production begins, the stock, currently trading at around CAD 0.13, could undergo a re-rating.
B2Gold: Solid Start to the Year, but Challenges Remain
After a mixed fourth quarter, B2Gold delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2026. All four mines exceeded internal expectations, with production reaching 237,763 ounces. All-in sustaining costs of USD 1,964 per ounce were well below the full-year forecast of USD 2,400–2,580. This is a clear sign that operational execution is back on track. The result was bolstered by an average gold price of USD 4,193 per ounce. However, the prepayment obligation—which runs through June and amounts to 22,064 ounces per month at just under half the market price—temporarily dampened cash flow.
The balance sheet has improved noticeably. Cash and cash equivalents rose to USD 479 million; following the sale of Fingold for USD 325 million, cash on hand is now likely to exceed USD 700 million. The USD 800 million credit line has been fully repaid. Operating cash flow reached USD 386 million, while free cash flow totalled USD 362 million. B2Gold allocated these funds to share buybacks of USD 80 million and dividend payments. This disciplined capital allocation at a share price below USD 5.00 signals confidence in the company’s intrinsic value.
However, the risks have not gone away. The fire at the Goose Mine’s crushing plant in April resulted in repair costs of approximately USD 10 million and a production shortfall of about 10,000 ounces in the second quarter. Repairs are expected to be completed in the third quarter. In addition, the mining permit for Fekola Regional in Mali remains pending, and the CEO change in June adds further uncertainty. B2Gold is currently reporting strong results, but the coming quarters will show whether the operational improvements are sustainable and whether the outstanding issues can be resolved. The stock is currently trading at around USD 4.57.
The fundamental drivers for gold—pressure for interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and ongoing central bank purchases—remain intact, making the sector a strategic buy. Newmont offers a solid foundation with record cash flow and a P/E ratio of 13.5, even if production risks limit upside potential. Desert Gold, with its two-stage roadmap to in-house production and the option in Côte d’Ivoire, offers a good risk-reward profile that, if successful, would justify a revaluation. B2Gold is performing well operationally but is struggling with repair costs and pending permits, which are testing the sustainability of its upward trend.
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