Stock Market Tensions: Margin Pressure, a Commodity Boom and Shifting Guidance – Cancom, Deutsche Rohstoff and Power Metallic Mines

CANCOM: Revenue forecast cut – will key support hold?

At CANCOM, hopes of a sustained recovery are coming under pressure. Shares in the Munich-based IT service provider are trading at around EUR 21.60, once again close to the late-summer lows of EUR 21. The trigger was an adjustment to the full-year outlook published on Monday evening, to which investors subsequently responded by selling. The Management Board now expects revenue of just EUR 1.65 to 1.75 billion for 2026. Previously, EUR 1.75 to 1.85 billion had been projected. The EBITDA forecast of EUR 110 to 130 million remains unchanged, as does the EBITA target of EUR 55 to 75 million. CANCOM cites longer decision-making processes and postponed projects, particularly in digital workplaces, as headwinds.

The preliminary quarterly figures show the headwinds: revenue fell from EUR 423.9 million to around EUR 412 million, while EBITDA declined from EUR 27.1 million to EUR 24.1 million. Operating earnings thus fell more sharply than revenue. These figures certainly do not indicate a positive acceleration in business. Yet CANCOM had indeed made progress in the first half. Despite declining revenue, EBITDA rose by 34% to EUR 49.2 million. Cost discipline and efficiency measures improved profitability. Gross profit increased to EUR 343.3 million, with the corresponding margin rising to 44.2%. This development shows why weaker revenue does not automatically mean an equally large impact on earnings.

However, the published figures point to a demanding final quarter. With EBITDA of EUR 49.2 million in the first half and a preliminary EUR 24.1 million in the third quarter, the nine-month total is EUR 73.3 million. To reach the confirmed full-year range, around EUR 36.7 to 56.7 million would be needed in the fourth quarter. Even the lower end therefore requires significantly more than the latest quarter. Cash flow developments also deserve attention. In its half-year report, CANCOM reported negative operating cash flow of EUR 109.6 million, attributing this to working capital investments. Investors should therefore monitor the income statement to see whether it releases tied-up working capital again. Rising margins are more convincing when they also generate cash inflows.

The chart offers little reassurance so far. Falling prices have dominated since the June high of EUR 29.40. The latest sideways movement between approximately EUR 22 and EUR 23 did not bring a lasting trend reversal. With the renewed pullback, the support zone between EUR 20 and EUR 21 is now back in focus. The shares had already tested this area in October 2023, November 2024, August 2025 and in March and August 2026. Another attempt now follows in late October 2026. The repeated tests underline the importance of this support, but do not guarantee that it will hold again. If the price were to break sustainably below this zone, the chart picture would deteriorate further, and the risk of new lows would increase. The key question, therefore, is whether buyers can defend the area between EUR 20 and EUR 21 this time too. 

The next test comes with the full quarterly report on November 12. Indications of demand, cash inflows and the achievability of earnings targets will be crucial. Until then, the confirmed profit margin remains a promise whose fulfilment has yet to be demonstrated in the final quarter.

Copper hopes in Québec: Power Metallic pushes ahead with Lion study

Canadian resources explorer Power Metallic Mines is rapidly transforming its flagship Nisk project in Québec into an advanced development project. Against a backdrop of accelerating electrification worldwide, expanding investment in power grids and efforts by Western countries and industrial companies to secure resilient supply chains for key strategic metals, copper is gaining increasing geostrategic relevance. To assess the economic foundations of the polymetallic Lion and Nisk Main deposits, Power Metallic’s management commissioned the renowned engineering firm BBA Inc. to prepare a preliminary economic assessment (PEA). The technical study is intended to specify mining and processing methods, capital and operating expenditure (Capex & Opex), and infrastructure connections. Completion and publication of these key figures are expected in the first half of 2027.

The initial mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Lion orebody, presented in September, serves as the quantitative basis. It comprises 4.75 million tonnes of ore with an average metal grade of 3.9% copper equivalent (CuEq), corresponding to a contained metal content of around 406 million pounds. The project is at an advanced stage, with more than 85% of the volume already designated as an indicated resource, while the remainder is classified as an inferred resource. This base is supplemented by the Nisk Main deposit, which contributes a further 4.72 million tonnes of nickel-copper resources. Together, the two deposits would likely unlock synergies. BBA’s experienced engineering team, together with geologists from SGS and GeoVector, is now validating the metallurgical processes after laboratory tests already demonstrated excellent copper recoveries of over 98%.

Beyond the existing modelling, recent deep drilling underpins considerable expansion potential along strike and at depth. Drill hole PML-26-125 intersected a high-grade interval of 5.7 m grading 14.0% CuEq at a vertical depth of around 800 m. This means the metallic mineralisation extends more than 25% deeper than the current resource captures. Another core interval returned 7.7 m grading 3.28% CuEq, while assay results for a drill hole from a depth of almost 900 m are still pending. These depth extensions are therefore not yet reflected in the tonnage figures reported to date. From a geological perspective, however, this provides grounds for a substantial upgrade of the deposits in future model updates. The ongoing drilling programme, funded through 2027, uses five core drilling rigs across a project area of around 330 km² and aims to further expand the known ore deposits, as it has done several times recently.

This steady progress is drawing a noticeably positive response from analysts: research firm GBC AG recently raised its valuation of the Lion and Tiger project areas from CAD 570 million to CAD 660 million. The analysts confirm their price target of CAD 3.00 (around EUR 1.86) and maintain their Buy rating on the shares. Thanks to CAD 28.2 million in equity financing successfully placed in June 2026, the company, led by CEO Terry Lynch, has sufficient cash to advance all engineering, drilling and environmental studies on schedule. In parallel, consultancy ethos stratégie is supporting the active dialogue with Indigenous communities and regional stakeholders. For institutional and private investors alike, gradual risk reduction ahead of the 2027 PEA remains the key metric, while prominent mining billionaires such as Eric Sprott, Robert Friedland, Rob McEwen or Gina Rinehart provide the necessary reassurance on the investor side.

Deutsche Rohstoff: Another guidance upgrade – will the breakout succeed now?

Deutsche Rohstoff AG provides fresh arguments for a continuation of its share price recovery. The Mannheim-based resources group raised its annual targets again on Tuesday. The shares closed on Thursday at around EUR 90.8, up just under 4% from Monday’s close. It currently remains uncertain whether the shares can sustainably break above the current price zone around EUR 92. Since the start of the year, the shares have gained a strong 84%, with the share price gain over 52 weeks reaching as much as 88%.

For 2026, the company now expects revenue of between EUR 340 million and EUR 360 million and EBITDA of EUR 420 million to EUR 440 million. As recently as August, the base-case scenarios stood at EUR 300 million to EUR 320 million. The oil price environment and the development of US production activities are providing a tailwind. For November and December, the new guidance assumes a WTI price of USD 95 per barrel. The relationship between revenue and earnings still requires explanation. At the midpoint of the EBITDA guidance, around EUR 270 million is attributable to oil and gas and around EUR 160 million to Almonty share sales. The latter are investment income rather than ordinary production revenue. No further Almonty shares have been sold since mid-July.

The half-year figures already showed how strongly such transactions shape the overall picture. On revenue of EUR 110 million, EBITDA reached EUR 205.2 million, while consolidated net profit amounted to EUR 134.7 million. This included about EUR 128 million from partial sales of the Almonty stake. At the same time, earnings from oil and gas, adjusted for the metals business and impairment charges, increased by 47% to EUR 23.2 million. The core business had therefore also grown.

This distinction is necessary for the company’s valuation. While a partial sale of an equity investment creates financial headroom, it cannot be repeated indefinitely. Sustainable earnings power depends on the volumes of oil and gas delivered by the new wells, the selling prices achieved and how much capital new projects consume. An apparently low valuation multiple on total EBITDA at present could otherwise convey an overly favourable overall picture.

From a technical analysis perspective, the shares have regained ground following the steep rise in spring and the subsequent correction. In the summer, the pronounced low zone was roughly between EUR 73 and EUR 80. By early October, the share price had stabilised around EUR 79 to EUR 82. These higher lows point to an improved starting position. They now serve as potential support zones.

Conclusion

Following a cut to its revenue guidance, CANCOM is struggling with continued investment restraint and must now defend a technically critical support zone in the final quarter.

Power Metallic Mines is driving its Canadian polymetallic project forward with a focused approach, backed by an upcoming preliminary economic assessment (PEA) and strong drilling results.

Deutsche Rohstoff AG is benefiting from strong US production activities and sales of equity investments, underpinning its recent share price recovery with another increase in its annual targets.

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