Almonty Industries: The Growth Story Gains Momentum
At Almonty Industries, the real test is beginning. For years, the stock market story of this tungsten specialist was driven primarily by the prospects of the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Now, that fantasy must translate into cash flow. Operationally, things are going well. In the second quarter, revenue jumped 498% year-over-year to CAD 43.0 million. Earnings from the mining business improved from a loss of CAD 0.9 million to a profit of CAD 26.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss of CAD 4.8 million to a profit of CAD 17.6 million. The gross margin reached 60.7%. This is primarily driven by the massive rise in the price of tungsten, from which the producing Panasqueira mine in Portugal is benefiting.
However, the quarterly profit of CAD 181.8 million should not yet be extrapolated. Approximately CAD 173.1 million was attributable to non-cash valuation gains from derivatives and warrants. More important for future development is that CAD 31.6 million flowed in from operating activities in the first half of the year, compared to an outflow of CAD 14.9 million a year earlier. This means that, for the first time, Almonty is more than just a bet on the future.
However, the real driver of growth remains South Korea. At Sangdong, commissioning of the first expansion phase is underway. At full capacity, the plant is expected to process approximately 640,000 metric tons of ore annually. An approved second phase could increase capacity to up to 1.2 million metric tons. The project ranks among the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside of China. Tungsten is used in carbide tools, electronics, aviation, and defense. China controls the lion’s share of production and has restricted exports of select tungsten products. As a result, supply security is becoming increasingly important for the West.
The purchase agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, part of the Plansee Group, which was extended in July, demonstrates just how sought-after Sangdong’s production is. The term was extended by six years, the volume increased by 40%, and the pricing formula improved by approximately 6.3%. This reduces the marketing risk and provides Almonty with good revenue visibility. The second phase of expansion is not covered, and additional volumes remain freely marketable.
Following the placement of an oversubscribed convertible senior notes offering worth USD 800 million, CAD 1.23 billion was on hand at the end of June. In the latest video, “Almonty Industries: The USD 800 Million Bet on Tungsten”, CEO Lewis Black explains how the new financial flexibility will be utilized. In addition to the ramp-up and expansion of Sangdong, the focus is on expanding the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, the Gentung project in Montana, and other potential strategic assets. At the same time, Black puts the USD 800 million convertible bond and the geopolitical race for a tungsten supply independent of China into context.
Management sent a confident signal in mid-August. By August 2029, up to 14.4 million of the company’s own shares, just under 5% of the share capital, may be repurchased for a maximum of USD 300 million. However, the program is an authorization, not a mandatory purchase. The scope depends on the share price, liquidity, and capital requirements.
Almonty is at an operational turning point. If the ramp-up at Sangdong is successful, revenue and earnings are likely to reach new heights. All in all, the stock remains a speculative hot stock—but its future price performance is now underpinned by operational progress, positive cash flow, and a well-stocked cash reserve. If the core business gains sustainable momentum with the ramp-up of Sangdong, Almonty shares still have significant upside potential.
Siemens Energy: The Next Value Reserve Is Being Unlocked
Almonty is banking on scarce tungsten, while Siemens Energy is banking on gas turbines and grid technology—which are hardly any less scarce. The insatiable demand for electricity from data centers, AI applications, and industry is delivering a boom in orders to the former Siemens problem child—a development that would have been almost unimaginable just a few years ago. Now, the corporate structure is also being streamlined for growth.
The Supervisory Board has approved preparations for the spin-off of Transformation of Industry (ToI). A stock market rumour has thus become a concrete project. In this division, Siemens Energy bundles steam turbines, generators, compressors, and electrolysers, among other things. This also includes the oil and gas equipment supplier Dresser-Rand, which the then-Siemens CEO and current Supervisory Board Chairman Joe Kaeser acquired in 2015 for USD 7.8 billion. Following the collapse of oil prices, the deal was long considered an expensive misstep. The business is now one of the more valuable parts of ToI.
DZ Bank, for example, expects the division to generate approximately EUR 6 billion in revenue and a margin of about 12% in fiscal year 2025/26. It employs around 17,000 people. As an independent company, ToI could target investments more specifically toward energy efficiency, electrification, and decarbonization. Within the group, however, the unit must compete for capital with Gas Services and Grid Technologies. And that is where the action is right now: according to analyst estimates, these two divisions are generating margins of approximately 16% and 19%, respectively, and are growing rapidly thanks to the boom in power plants and grid infrastructure.
Following the operational and legal separation, Siemens Energy intends to establish a new ownership structure, deconsolidate the business, and retain only a significant minority stake. The process could take 12 to 24 months. Given the diverse ToI business segments and the stabilizing service component of around 50%, analysts consider the entry of a financial investor more likely than a traditional initial public offering (IPO). Valuations of more than EUR 10 billion are circulating in the market.
Operationally, Siemens Energy is currently delivering textbook results. In the third quarter, order intake rose by 8.5% to a record EUR 17.9 billion, while the order backlog reached EUR 162 billion. Revenue increased by 18.5% to EUR 11.4 billion, and earnings before special items jumped to EUR 1.6 billion. Even Siemens Gamesa returned to profitability for the first time since 2022. The wind power sector, once a billion-euro problem, could thus, at least gradually, return to being a normal industrial business.
Separating from ToI would tailor Siemens Energy more closely to gas turbines, services, and grid technology. Less complexity could be rewarded on the stock market with a higher valuation multiple. However, this would mean an increased dependence on the boom in AI, data centers, and grid expansion. If this boom weakens, part of the company’s industrial diversification will be lost in the future.
After the massive price rally, the stock is no longer a bargain. Much of the potential for the future already appears to be priced in. However, the operational boom, the Gamesa turnaround, and the ToI spin-off certainly still provide further catalysts for the share price. Newcomers should nevertheless not blindly chase the stock after its recent surge. Buying on pullbacks during weaker trading days would be the more elegant entry strategy for interested long-term investors.
Apple: The New CEO Must Deliver
An era is coming to an end at Apple. On September 1, John Ternus will take over as CEO from Tim Cook, who will remain with the company as Executive Chairman. The new CEO will not have much of a grace period. Just a few days later, the traditional September keynote is expected to take place. An official invitation has not yet been issued, but September 9 is currently considered the most likely date. The iPhone 18 Pro models are expected, and possibly even Apple’s first foldable smartphone. For Ternus, the presentation will thus serve as his inaugural address to an audience of millions.
He is not taking over a company in need of a turnaround. Tim Cook is leaving behind one of the most profitable money-making machines in economic history. In the most recent quarter, Apple generated USD 109.4 billion in revenue, up 16% from the previous year. Earnings per share climbed by 29%. The services business alone generated USD 30.7 billion, accounting for 28% of the company’s total revenue. Even more impressive is the margin: at 75.6%, Apple earns nearly twice as much from apps, subscriptions, advertising, and cloud services as it does from its hardware.
Ternus must preserve this successful model while simultaneously reinventing Apple. The 51-year-old engineer has worked for the company since 2001 and was most recently responsible for hardware development. The iPhone, iPad, Mac, AirPods, and Apple Watch all bear his hallmark. This promises continuity. But the capital market expects more than just the next generation of thinner, faster, or foldable devices.
When it comes to artificial intelligence, Apple has lost ground to Microsoft, Alphabet, and other rivals. The partnership with Alphabet and the integration of Gemini into Siri show that Cupertino does not want to develop every costly component on its own. That does not have to be a disadvantage. With more than two billion active devices, Apple has a distribution channel that other AI providers can only dream of.
The opportunity lies in the deep integration of hardware, software, and services. If AI functions are executed directly on the device, this aligns with Apple’s privacy commitments. At the same time, new applications could shorten the iPhone’s recently lengthening replacement cycles and generate additional subscription revenue. The supposed AI laggard could thus become an extremely efficient marketer—a role Apple has already mastered brilliantly on multiple occasions.
The second major challenge lies in the supply chain. Shortages of high-performance chips, DRAM, and NAND memory are driving up costs. Apple recently issued an explicit warning that these headwinds could intensify. However, the company has advantages: enormous order volumes, in-house processors, and pricing power that has made even four-figure smartphone prices socially acceptable.
On the stock market, a good portion of this quality has long been priced in. The 2027 P/E ratio of around 32 leaves little room for missteps. Ternus is thus taking on not only a superbly capitalized company but also a backpack brimming with expectations. The AI gap must narrow, margins are expected to remain high despite rising chip costs, and new devices must once again generate greater demand. Apple remains a quality stock—but not a cheap one. Existing investors should hold on to their positions. Long-term-oriented newcomers should use weaker days to build a position gradually.
Almonty, Siemens Energy, and Apple are each at a turning point—though with vastly different risk-reward ratios. Almonty offers the greatest operational leverage with the highest upside potential. If the Sangdong ramp-up succeeds, the tungsten specialist could finally evolve from a “hot stock” into a commodities company. Siemens Energy is already several steps ahead. The operational boom is in full swing, Gamesa is stabilizing, and the spin-off of ToI could unlock hidden value. However, following the price rally, a great deal of speculation is already priced in. Apple, on the other hand, remains the most solid stock of the trio, but the new CEO, John Ternus, must demonstrate that the company can not only manage its massive cash cow but also rekindle its appeal in the age of AI.
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