Who could prevail in a bidding war?
The global economy is on the brink of a new era – and one company stands to be among the biggest beneficiaries. Almonty Industries Inc. (TSX: AII | ISIN: CA0203981034) is uniquely positioned to meet the soaring demand for tungsten, a critical raw material for high-tech and defense industries. While China tightens its export restrictions, Almonty is on track to emerge as the largest producer outside the Middle Kingdom. The Company does not need to seek buyers – customers are scrambling to secure supplies. And this is only the beginning. The stock has already doubled in value, and it could be just getting started!
Almonty: A company at the heart of geopolitical realities
Almonty Industries Inc. (TSX: AII | ISIN: CA0203981034) has not only made headlines with impressive company announcements in recent weeks but has also gained geopolitical prominence due to China’s latest tungsten export restrictions. A defining moment occurred on January 20, 2025: On the day of Donald J. Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President, Almonty announced its decision to relocate its corporate headquarters from Canada to the United States. This strategic move offers significant political and economic advantages.
Shortly after, another surprise followed: Almonty announced a billion-dollar supply agreement with a SpaceX supplier for molybdenum. Starting in 2026, the Company plans to deliver 5,600 tons of molybdenum at a minimum price of $19 per pound – securing a guaranteed annual revenue of at least $234 million, independent of market fluctuations.
Analyst raises price target – and the rally has only just begun
Sphene Capital analyst Peter Thilo Hasler reacted swiftly, raising his price target for Almonty from CAD 3.21 to CAD 5.20 (Source). And this adjustment was before China imposed tungsten sanctions! A fundamental revaluation of the Company seems inevitable.
Explosive video appearance sends the stock to an all-time high
On Friday evening, Stockhouse published a video interview featuring host Lyndsay Malchuk and Almonty CEO Lewis Black. The result? A stock price explosion. Black was candid, stating: “Given our vast resources with exceptionally high quality compared to competitors and our presence in a legally secure environment within a mature democracy, it is unlikely that we will remain independent forever.”
The geopolitical factor is undeniable: China currently controls around 83% of the global tungsten supply, with Russia holding another 3%. This puts the U.S. and Western nations under immense pressure – starting in 2027, U.S. defense companies will be required to source tungsten exclusively from allied nations. Almonty is the largest new player outside of China and is set to begin production in 2025, targeting a 30% market share.
100 per cent stock gain in six weeks – and more to come!
Since the beginning of the year, Almonty’s stock has already doubled, yet its market capitalization remains a modest CAD 500 million. Given the Company’s strategic importance, this could be just the beginning.
Lewis Black is no stranger to managing successful acquisitions – he has done it before. In his conversation with Malchuk, he hinted that production capacity at Sangdong could be further expanded. “We have the potential to double our volume. We can also open another mine in Sangdong, which has already been approved.” Translation? Almonty’s profits could far exceed current projections. A clear signal to potential buyers: Anyone looking to acquire Almonty will need deep pockets!
Who could acquire Almonty?
The list of potential buyers is long – and prestigious. In addition to Almonty’s direct customers, new market players, and even governments could express interest. One thing is clear: Without tungsten, nothing works – no chips, no high-tech products, and no modern defense industry. While there are numerous suppliers for other raw materials, Almonty’s tungsten reserves and production capacity enable it to meet the entire US demand within a year – an evident monopoly position. Has a LinkedIn post hinted at a potential takeover? Global Tungsten & Powders Corp. (GTP) already holds 13.97% – that’s 38.15 million shares – of Almonty and recently posted the following message on the business network:
“In response to potential new import tariffs, GTP reaffirms its dedication to providing our customers with uninterrupted service and a consistent supply of tungsten products. Your U.S. Tungsten provider. Think Tungsten. Think GTP.”
According to LSEG, Almonty is GTP’s only publicly traded investment. With its supply commitment, GTP has made a bold statement – a strong indicator of ambitious plans in the event of a bidding war.
Over 150 per cent upside potential – The market is just discovering Almonty
Despite the recent surge, the stock remains below CAD 2.00 – still far from the CAD 5.20 price target set by Sphene Capital. However, momentum is building: reports on tungsten and Almonty are increasing, and trading volume is skyrocketing on stock exchanges in Australia, Germany, and Canada.
Conclusion: China halts exports – Almonty takes the lead!
The combination of geopolitical significance, rising demand, and a clear strategic positioning makes Almonty (TSX: AII | ISIN: CA0203981034) a potential multibagger. Those who invest now could witness one of the most spectacular commodity rallies of the year!
Conflict of interest
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