- Black Friday 2025 is breaking records, with U.S. online sales projected at US$11.7B (+8.3 per cent) and Canadian spending hitting US$9.3B, signalling strong consumer confidence
- Online shopping leads the way—71 per cent of U.S. shoppers and a growing majority in Canada prefer digital channels, boosting Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify
- Canadians show strong “buy local” sentiment, with BC and Alberta leading spending growth, while affordability and discounts remain top priorities
- Robust holiday sales historically lift retail stocks; focus on market leaders, seasonal plays in logistics and BNPL, and Canadian tech for growth opportunities
Black Friday has evolved from a retail frenzy into a powerful economic signal, shaping investor sentiment and influencing stock performance across North America. For those tracking consumer trends, this year’s data offers a compelling story of resilience, shifting behaviours, and opportunities in both U.S. and Canadian markets.
A record-breaking season in the U.S.
In the United States, Black Friday 2025 is projected to set new records. Online sales are expected to reach US$11.7 billion, an 8.3 per cent increase from last year, while global online spending could climb to nearly US$80 billion. The National Retail Federation anticipates overall holiday retail sales surpassing US$1 trillion for the first time, a sign of robust consumer confidence despite lingering inflationary pressures.
This article is a journalistic opinion piece that has been written based on independent research. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice.
Shoppers are increasingly digital-first, with 71 per cent planning to buy online and only 29 per cent opting for in-store visits. Electronics, apparel, and home goods remain dominant categories, while “Buy Now, Pay Later” services continue to gain traction, reflecting consumers’ desire for flexibility. These trends reinforce the strength of e-commerce giants like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which analysts predict could see a 25 per cent upside over the next year, and Walmart (NYSE:WMT), whose omnichannel strategy has driven a 14 per cent year-to-date stock gain.
Historically, retail stocks outperform during the holiday season, and this year appears no different. Strong Black Friday numbers often translate into bullish sentiment for consumer discretionary sectors, influencing Q4 earnings and even broader market dynamics.
Canada joins the spending surge
North of the border, Black Friday has become just as significant. Canadians are expected to spend C$9.3 billion across Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up c$1.7 billion from last year. The average shopper plans to spend c$319 on Black Friday alone, and 84 per cent rank it as their most important shopping day—well ahead of Boxing Day.
Consumer behaviour in Canada mirrors global trends but with a local twist. Discounts and free shipping top the priority list, while loyalty programs and influencer promotions carry less weight. Interestingly, Canadians show a strong “buy local” sentiment: 86 per cent plan to shop close to home, and 84 per cent will seek Canadian-made products, even as affordability remains a key driver.
Regional data adds nuance for investors. British Columbia, for example, is seeing a 26 per cent increase in spending, averaging c$1,129 per person, while Alberta leads nationally at c$1,193. Québec, on the other hand, is tightening its belt, with spending down 20 per cent. These variations can inform localized investment strategies, particularly for retail REITs and discount chains.
E-commerce continues its upward trajectory in Canada, with Amazon dominating at 79 per cent of planned purchases, followed by Walmart at 45 per cent. Emerging platforms like Temu and Shein are gaining traction, a sign of opportunities in cross-border logistics and digital retail infrastructure. For investors, Canadian tech darling Shopify (TSX:SHOP) remains a key player, benefiting from the surge in online shopping and retailers’ push for AI-driven personalization.
Why It matters for investors
Black Friday spending is more than a retail statistic—it’s a proxy for economic health. In Canada, household consumption accounts for over half of GDP, making these trends critical for assessing resilience amid inflation and tariffs. Strong performance suggests stability, which can bolster confidence in consumer discretionary stocks and related sectors.
For U.S. and Canadian investors alike, the takeaway is clear: monitor consumer data closely, focus on market leaders like Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify, and consider seasonal plays in logistics and payment processing. Beyond retail, Black Friday’s momentum can ripple through the economy, influencing interest rate expectations and broader market sentiment.
Consume mass quantities
Black Friday is no longer just about snagging deals—it’s about reading the economic tea leaves. This year’s record-breaking numbers highlight a resilient consumer base and evolving shopping habits, offering investors a roadmap for navigating the holiday season and beyond. Whether you’re eyeing retail giants, e-commerce innovators, or regional growth opportunities, the signals are clear: consumer confidence remains strong, and the market is listening.
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