- IMF Ups Growth: Global GDP forecast raised to 3% for 2025, with inflation steady.
- Tariffs Still High: Lower than expected, but 17% tariffs keep inflation elevated.
- Crypto Demand Rising: Bitcoin’s fixed supply and low ownership drive interest.
- ETF & Policy Boost: Crypto ETFs gain favor; Genius Act adds regulatory clarity.
Global Market Update
In a global market landscape defined by evolving tariffs, tempered inflation expectations, and an eye toward crypto, investors are navigating both volatility and opportunity. Alpha Ba, Chief Investment Officer at Pillow Investment Partner, a global consulting powerhouse based in Toronto, joined The Market Online’s Expert Exchange for a global update following the IMF’s latest revision to the 2025 World Economic Outlook.
This article is a journalistic opinion piece which has been written based on independent research. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice.
“The IMF came out yesterday with an update to their report,” Ba told Coreena Robertson. “At the highest level, they’re now expecting a slightly higher GDP growth globally, with inflation expectations being unchanged.”
Alpha Ba, CIO Pillow Investment
Ba explains that investors drove markets higher after recognizing that worst-case tariff scenarios were unlikely. For 2026, expectations have nudged from 3% to 3.1%. However, inflation estimates remain steady at 4.2% for this year, with a mild decline to 3.6% in 2026.
Tariff Relief — But Not Quite a Victory Lap
What’s driving the revision? The recalibration in tariff expectations following Liberation Day by the Trump administration was key.
“Tariffs were expected to be about 24% on a weighted average basis in the U.S. That 24 now seems to have gone down to 17%,” said Ba. “Lower tariffs mean slightly higher growth.”
Still, the relief comes with caveats.
“Even though they are reduced, they remain high enough to generate inflation in the next couple of quarters,” Ba added.
Indeed, the U.S. reported June inflation at 2.7%, still above the Federal Reserve’s target. As a result, interest rate cuts remain off the table — for now.
Global Markets: Investors Riding the Wave
Despite the persistent inflation pressures, investor sentiment is bullish.
“Investors have been partying like it’s Christmas,” Ba said with a chuckle. “Since the bottom in April, the markets are up 27 to 30%. The S&P is up 28%.”
Ba explains that investors have buoyed markets by realizing the worst-case tariff scenarios may not materialize.
“Investors have correctly anticipated that tariffs would be more subdued than expected. That has been a correct assessment.”
But caution still lingers beneath the surface. High tariffs — even at 17% — can create ripple effects, especially when it comes to pricing pressure and corporate margins in global supply chains.
Inflation Hedges: Crypto in Focus
With traditional inflation hedges like gold holding firm, investors are increasingly eyeing digital alternatives — notably, cryptocurrency.
“We are pretty positive on crypto. We’ve been investing in crypto for a long time,” said Ba.
Today, the total crypto market cap sits around $4 trillion, dwarfed by $22 trillion in gold and $85 trillion in global equities. But Bar sees upside in the disparity.
“It’s still an under appreciated asset globally. Only 13% of G7 investors own Bitcoin, versus 40 to 50% owning stock.”
Ba emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed supply — capped at 21 million coins, with 95% already issued — drives its value as demand continues to rise.
“We think Bitcoin is very attractive. It’s a fixed supply asset in a world of expanding monetary bases.”
Beyond the Coins: ETFs and Infrastructure Bets
While the CIO declined to disclose the specific portfolio weighting of crypto at Pillow Investment Partner, he confirmed a “middle weight” exposure and clarified their investment vehicle of choice.
“We actually own the ETFs — they are liquid and easy to deploy from a financial perspective. We don’t want to take the operating risk of direct coin ownership right now.”
Alpha Ba, CIO Pillow Investment
Among the ETFs favored is IBIT by BlackRock, one of the fastest-growing funds in ETF history, reaching $50 billion in assets in record time.
Bar also pointed to decentralized platforms like Ethereum, which powers roughly 70% of all smart contracts, as an important layer in the ecosystem. And for those looking at companies in the crypto infrastructure space, he noted this as a viable alternative — with a key regulatory tailwind.
Genius Act: A Quiet Game-Changer?
The recently passed Genius Act, which mandates reserve backing of stablecoins with U.S. Treasuries, has added clarity to an otherwise opaque regulatory environment.
“It’s a positive. From a government perspective, it creates more demand for U.S. Treasuries. And from a crypto perspective, it creates more regulatory clarity,” said Ba.
Global Market Final Thoughts
In a year where expectations have flipped and investors are searching for solid ground amid uncertainty, Alpha Ba offers a roadmap marked by optimism and realism.
“Yes, there’s growth. Yes, there’s upside. But inflation risks haven’t gone away — and neither has volatility.”
Still, if investors are willing to navigate the noise, opportunities remain — from equities and ETFs to the expanding frontiers of digital assets.
Alpha Ba provided an update to this interview and article on August 15th. Ba stated, “This week’s inflation number (CPI) was well-behaved at 2.7% in July, justifying a continued rally in equities, as tariffs have had a subdued impact on the economy so far.”
For more Expert Exchange interviews and insights, check out Ba’s Stock Picks from Latin America to Canada. Previously, Ba also gave a global market update in the the trade war disruption,
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