- Rick Rule argues that investors often focus on narratives rather than fundamentals during commodity cycles.
- The “easy money” in uranium has already been made, but the long-term investment case remains compelling due to persistent supply deficits.
- Successful resource investing requires patience, research and a focus on management quality rather than market hype.
Oil shocks, geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns often create opportunities in natural resources—but they can also encourage investors to chase narratives rather than fundamentals.
This article is a journalistic opinion piece which has been written based on independent research. It is intended to inform investors and should not be taken as a recommendation or financial advice.
In this episode of The Expert Exchange, Ricki Lee speaks with veteran resource investor Rick Rule about commodity cycles, uranium, oil markets and the lessons investors can learn from decades of market volatility.
Rule argues that investors should spend less time reacting emotionally to headlines and more time evaluating management teams, balance sheets, project economics and long-term industry fundamentals. He also explains why uranium remains one of the most compelling long-term resource opportunities despite strong gains in recent years.
Investors interested in learning more about natural resources can also explore the upcoming Rule Symposium, one of the industry’s longest-running investment conferences. Virtual access remains available, providing live access to all main-stage presentations, panels and fireside chats from July 7–11, along with on-demand access to every session through December 31, 2026. Save US$50 on registration for the Rule Symposium using the discount code VA50.
Watch the video above or on YouTube, or read the transcript below. Share your thoughts with the community.
Rick Rule on uranium, oil shocks and resource investing
The following transcript has been edited for clarity and readability.
Ricki Lee:
Hello and welcome to The Expert Exchange. I’m Ricki Lee, and today I’m asking: how should investors think about natural resources during a period of energy volatility?
Oil shocks are not new. From the 1970s to today, supply disruptions and geopolitical risk have repeatedly forced governments to rethink where their energy comes from, how secure those supplies are, and how quickly they need to diversify.
But for investors, the picture is more complicated than simply saying, “Oil is up, therefore every energy stock is attractive.”
To help unpack that, I’m joined today by Rick Rule, a veteran natural resources investor with decades of experience across mining, oil and gas, uranium, precious metals and commodity cycles.
Rick, welcome to The Expert Exchange.
Rick Rule:
Pleasure to be with you. I look forward to this interview.
Ricki Lee:
Thank you for joining me today. Rick, when oil shocks hit the headlines—whether because of conflict, supply disruption or fear around shipping routes—what do retail investors usually get wrong?
Rick Rule:
Retail investors usually speculate in the narrative, which is to say the story.
They seldom frame the opportunity in its true long-term context, and they seldom consider the entirety of an investment. For example, is the management team experienced in oil and gas? Has the management team survived financial turmoil before?
Very few investors are holistic enough during the storm to understand the totality of their investment. Instead, they focus on the narrative rather than the facts.
I think that’s the primary reason why most speculators fail. They often get part of the story right, but they substitute the part of the story that involves their feelings for the part that requires them to think.
Thinking over time rather than feeling is what generates investment returns.
Ricki Lee:
For small-cap investors looking at uranium, oil and gas, or critical minerals because of the energy security theme, what separates a serious investment opportunity from a stock simply riding the macro narrative?
Rick Rule:
Begin with the CEO.
If the CEO is a pitchman, you can trade him, but don’t mistake that for investing.
Does the CEO of an oil company actually know something about oil and gas? Has he demonstrated success before? In the uranium business, if they’re explorers, have they found uranium before?
Forget the narrative. Forget the pretty slides. Particularly forget the part of the presentation that talks to you about the market. You can form your own opinion about the market.
Management needs to work through the business plan. That’s not about narrative—it’s about execution.
It starts with management. Then it moves to the use of funds.
A small-cap company spending more than 20% of its budget on G&A and marketing is a marketing company, not a mining company.
Read the balance sheet. Read the income statement. Look at the resource calculations.
Most investors hear a penny stock story and immediately think uranium is going up or oil is short. They don’t think about return on capital employed, capital intensity or all-in sustaining costs.
The devil is in the details.
Ultimately, these things have to become businesses, not stories.
Don’t waste much time feeling. Spend a lot of time thinking.
Ricki Lee:
A lot of investors will be looking at uranium and wondering whether the easy gains have already been made. How should investors decide whether it’s too late to participate in a commodity theme?
Rick Rule:
The easy money has been made.
The easy money in commodities is made when a commodity goes from being hated to simply not hated.
When uranium was selling for US$20 per pound, nobody wanted to be involved. The industry was spending about US$40 per pound to produce uranium and selling it for US$20.
When uranium stopped being hated and became priced above the marginal cost of production, the easy money was made.
But the sure money—the certain money—is still ahead of us.
We have a supply deficit. We’re using more uranium than we’re producing.
Some people say that’s okay because we have inventory, but much of that inventory is unavailable for sale. Meanwhile, demand is increasing and production is not responding fast enough.
There is growing political support for nuclear energy and an emerging contract market that allows producers to lock in long-term sales agreements.
There’s also increasing geopolitical competition to support domestic uranium production.
The easy money in uranium is gone.
The certain money is still there.
Ricki Lee:
As we begin to wrap things up, what have past resource bear markets taught you about being prepared?
Rick Rule:
Take yourself back to COVID.
When demand for motor fuel collapsed, oil briefly traded at zero before settling around US$20 per barrel.
It cost the industry roughly US$55 per barrel to produce oil when you included taxes and the cost of capital.
There were only two possible outcomes: either oil went back above US$55, or people stopped driving.
The market eventually corrected, and oil didn’t just return to fair value—it overshot.
That’s the lesson.
At US$95 oil, the shortage narrative seemed obvious. But the real opportunity was when oil was at US$20 and nobody wanted it.
Markets work because low prices cure low prices and high prices cure high prices.
Understanding that is critical to being a successful resource investor.
Ricki Lee:
Before I let you go, I know you have the Rule Symposium coming up. What is the focus of this year’s event?
Rick Rule:
I’m delighted to say this is approximately the 30th year of the conference.
One thing that sets the event apart is that every exhibitor is owned in the accounts of the conference sponsors. If we don’t own stock in a company, they can’t exhibit.
The second thing is that if you attend—whether live or online—and decide that I didn’t earn the tuition, I’ll give you your money back.
The event is called the Rule Natural Resource Investment Symposium.
[ Stockhouse Users get a special offer – Save US$50 on registration for the Rule Sym ]
The website is www.rulesymposium.com.
If you’re serious about natural resource investing, come to the conference.
If you’re not prepared to invest in yourself before investing in resource stocks, don’t bother.
Ricki Lee:
Finally, for a retail investor watching oil shocks, uranium, energy security and natural resource volatility, what’s the one lesson you’d want them to take away?
Rick Rule:
Think in a five-year timeframe.
When I was young, I was impatient. Now that I have less time on Earth, I’ve become very patient because I’ve learned that’s how long investment theses take to play out.
Investors feel instead of think.
Feeling is easy. Thinking is hard.
Most investors understand where they think gold, copper or uranium might go over five years, but they struggle to hold a stock through a long weekend.
That mismatch between the time required for an investment thesis to work and the time investors allow it to work causes many failures.
The second lesson is to focus.
Most speculators own too many stocks.
I tell people to own the same number of speculative stocks as the number of hours per month they’re willing to spend researching them.
Invest in yourself before you invest in these stocks.
That’s the most important lesson.
Ricki Lee:
Rick, thank you so much for joining us today.
Rick Rule:
Thank you for the opportunity. I look forward to a rematch.
Ricki Lee:
To conclude, in small-cap resource markets, the macro story is only part of the equation. Management, jurisdiction, balance sheet strength, project quality, dilution risk, permitting and valuation all still matter.
That’s all for this episode of The Expert Exchange. I’m Ricki Lee. Thank you for watching, and we’ll see you again next time.
