Novo Nordisk – Cooling Off After a High-Flying Run
Novo Nordisk is going through a difficult phase. The former growth giant is struggling with declining market share in the GLP-1 segment, particularly in the US, where Eli Lilly clearly leads the pack with Zepbound and Mounjaro. This is further compounded by expiring patents for semaglutide in emerging markets such as India and China. There, low-cost generics are flooding the market. The company’s own revenue forecast for 2026 is correspondingly bleak, at -5 to -13%. Operationally, things simply are not going smoothly at the moment. On top of that, there is massive margin pressure from price cuts, which Novo is forced to implement, not least due to US regulations. It is worth noting that the company currently derives nearly three-quarters of its business from GLP-1 therapies.
However, the company has not given up entirely. A Phase 3a study of oral semaglutide in adolescents with type 2 diabetes recently yielded positive data, and an indication expansion is planned for the second half of the year. Additionally, the candidate Coramitug received Fast Track designation from the FDA for a rare heart muscle disease. The oral Wegovy spin-off has also launched in the US. Weekly prescriptions for Eli Lilly’s new pill competitor, Foundayo, lagged significantly behind those for Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy in its first full week. Another positive note is that semaglutide appears to preserve muscle mass better than tirzepatide, potentially providing a differentiating advantage. International expansion outside the US is also proceeding at a growth rate nearly twice that of the domestic market.
On the plus side are a low valuation and a solid operating cash flow yield of about 11%. The dividend yield is over 4%, and a share buyback program is in place. However, ongoing margin pressure, the superior competitor Lilly, and uncertainty regarding the pipeline weigh against the stock. CagriSema performed worse than Zepbound in studies. For those with a long-term perspective, this represents an interesting—though not risk-free—bet. Interested investors should wait for the quarterly results on May 6. Free cash flow remains substantial at just under EUR 6 billion. The stock is currently trading at EUR 35.025.
Vidac Pharma – Fighting Cancer Cells Through Their Metabolism
Vidac Pharma’s approach is unconventional but logically grounded: instead of directly attacking cancer cells, the company aims to reprogram their metabolism back to a normal state.
The key target is the enzyme Hexokinase 2 (HK2), which is heavily upregulated in tumours and blocks programmed cell death. Using small molecules, this protein is detached from the mitochondria, allowing the cell to undergo controlled apoptosis once again. What sounds like basic research has long since moved into clinical testing. A Phase 2b study in severe skin lesions is currently underway in Germany, and positive Phase 2 data have already been reported in a rare lymphoma.
A compassionate-use case involving a four-year-old girl with a brain tumour recently provided additional, albeit anecdotal, insights. The active ingredient reached the brain, stabilized metabolic markers, and the patient is reportedly without cognitive impairment today. This could significantly broaden the drug’s potential. At the same time, Vidac Pharma is venturing into new territory. A preclinical study in psoriasis, also a disease linked to dysregulated glucose metabolism, is underway. At the same time, management is pushing expansion into continental Europe, supported by two major incubators. A newly granted US patent secures the drug class through 2045.
Shareholders are likely to appreciate that management is investing its own money in the company. Prof. Dr. Herzberg recently reinvested approximately EUR 280,000, with additional contributions from directors. Since 2019, the company has been financing itself not through venture capital but via private funding and non-dilutive grants. The strategic objective is a sale or licensing deal with Big Pharma within the next two to three years, aligning with a period when many major pharmaceutical patents are set to expire. Comparable transactions for similar molecular platforms ranged from USD 1.15 billion to USD 2.8 billion, clearly speculative benchmarks but indicative of the market’s potential. The stock is currently trading at EUR 0.586.
Evotec – Restructuring with Risk and Return Potential
The 2025 financial results are mixed. While the biologics subsidiary, Just – Evotec Biologics, grew by 40% to EUR 259 million, the traditional research business slumped by nearly 14%. Capacity utilization is declining because biotech startups are holding back on new orders. The “Horizon” cost-cutting program is leading to severe cuts. 800 jobs are being eliminated, and the global footprint is shrinking from 14 to 10 locations. Management is targeting annual savings of EUR 75 million by the end of 2027. 2026 will be purely a transition year. The first effects will become apparent at the earliest in the second half of the year.
The group’s leadership is being reorganized. Claire Hinshelwood, an experienced finance expert from Novartis, will take over as CFO in May. Dr. Ingrid Müller is joining as COO to implement “Horizon” operationally. At the same time, the hedge fund MAK Capital, with a 7% stake, is pushing for an IPO of the profitable US subsidiary. Its value is estimated at over EUR 1 billion. That is more than the parent company’s entire market capitalization. This external pressure is forcing management to deliver results quickly. The annual general meeting on June 11 will show how serious the supervisory board is about resisting the takeover.
The acquisition of Tubulis by Gilead is valued at around USD 100 million. This is welcome liquidity for the difficult restructuring. The coming weeks will be decisive, with the Q1 figures to be released on May 6. If the new leadership demonstrates initial progress in cost reduction and capacity utilization, confidence could return. If the effects fail to materialize, further headwinds loom. Until then, Evotec remains a bet on an operational turnaround—with risk, but also significant potential. Currently, one share costs EUR 5.095.
In 2026, the healthcare market remains a battleground between technological progress and regulatory pressure. Novo Nordisk is countering margin pressure and currently superior competition with a low valuation and high dividend. Vidac Pharma is banking on a revolutionary metabolic therapy for cancer and could become a takeover target thanks to strong management and its patents. Evotec, finally, is undergoing a painful restructuring, which is expected to bring about a turnaround through the IPO of its US subsidiary and cost savings.
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