ASML: Is Europe’s Most Valuable Company Heading Toward a Trillion-Dollar Valuation?
ASML shares (WKN: A1J4U4 | ISIN: NL0010273215 | Ticker: ASML) have risen by about 59% since the start of the year; over 52 weeks, the gain is as high as approximately 151%. With a market capitalization of around EUR 609 billion, or just under USD 700 billion, the Dutch company is the most valuable publicly traded company in Europe and ranks among the top 25 globally. This places ASML immediately behind AMD and just ahead of Visa. Even companies like ExxonMobil and Johnson & Johnson now have a lower market capitalization.
The stock rally is supported by strong operating results. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue rose by a solid 21% year-over-year to EUR 9.33 billion. Net income increased by about 27% to EUR 2.92 billion, while the gross margin climbed from 53.7% to 54.0%. The business related to the installed machine base performed particularly well. Revenue reached EUR 2.76 billion, exceeding the company’s own expectations by around EUR 300 million. Even more significant is the markedly more optimistic outlook. For the full year, ASML now expects revenue of EUR 43-45 billion and a gross margin of 54-56%. After the first quarter, the company had forecast revenue of only EUR 36-40 billion and a margin of 51-53%. Revenue of EUR 11-12 billion is already expected in the third quarter.
ASML benefits from an exceptional market position. The company is the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems, which are indispensable for the production of state-of-the-art logic and memory chips. For 2026, ASML aims to deliver around 65 low-NA EUV systems; EUV revenue is expected to grow by about 45%. In the memory business, management even expects 75% growth. An increase in EUV capacity of around 30% is planned for 2027, with the necessary orders already almost entirely secured. A further 30% expansion is being considered for 2028. In addition, Intel is now using high-NA in production—an essential demonstration of technological maturity.
Reaching the trillion-dollar mark is therefore not unrealistic. At the current exchange rate, ASML would need to achieve a market capitalization of around EUR 875 billion or a share price of approximately EUR 2,260. Based on the current share price of around EUR 1,575, this would require an increase of just under 44%. UBS is nearly at this threshold with a price target of EUR 2,250, while JPMorgan, at EUR 2,100, views around 33% upside potential. Kepler Cheuvreux cites EUR 2,300, Barclays EUR 2,400, and Bernstein EUR 2,500. All five firms recommend buying ASML shares.
Nevertheless, the risks remain significant. With an expected P/E ratio of around 38 for 2027, ASML shares are already trading at a premium. A slowdown in AI investments, problems with capacity expansion, or stricter export regulations could therefore hit the share price hard. China is expected to account for around 20% of revenue in 2026. ASML possesses a unique competitive advantage—but on its path to USD 1 trillion, the company must meet its ambitious expectations with near-perfect precision, as even the slightest deviations are currently punished ruthlessly by the market, as the recent example of IBM has just shown.
Desert Gold: From Explorer to Producer in the Gold Bull Market
Amid a macroeconomic environment in which geopolitical tensions have continued to keep the gold price above the USD 4,000-per-ounce mark, the gold explorer Desert Gold (WKN: A14X09 | ISIN: CA25039N4084 | Ticker Symbol: QXR2) is undergoing a fundamental transformation. At its West African SMSZ project, the company is transitioning from a pure-play exploration company to an active producer. The planned start of oxide gold production in the current third quarter marks this operational turning point. The logistical groundwork for this milestone was laid long ago. The gravity concentrator that was ordered has already arrived at the port of Dakar and is now being transported overland to the mine. The transformation was supported by an oversubscribed capital increase in the spring of 2026 totaling CAD 7.18 million, which provided the financial backing needed to make the leap into cash flow generation.
Despite tangible progress, the company’s current market capitalization of just EUR 27 million (CAD 43 million) does not yet reflect its future earnings potential. The company’s latest economic feasibility study shows an attractive after-tax net present value of USD 124 million at a current gold price of USD 4,100. The corresponding internal rate of return of 101% suggests a massive discrepancy relative to the current market capitalization. The company is currently valued at an extremely low USD 9 per ounce of gold in the ground, while industry-standard acquisition premiums have historically ranged from USD 66 to over USD 100. To gradually increase production efficiency and channel as much of the upcoming cash flow as possible into mine expansion, management has recently implemented even stricter cost discipline and switched to semi-annual reporting.
In addition to the upcoming gold production, management is simultaneously driving organic growth through a 4,250 m drill program. Initial results have already shown excellent intervals of 12.41 g/t gold over 45 m. The promising Tiegba project in Côte d’Ivoire offers additional upside potential. This property is expected to significantly improve the company’s resource profile in the long term. Given the imminent transition to initial gold production and the strong project pipeline, analysts at GBC Research see an unjustified valuation discount and are issuing a clear “Buy” signal. With a price target of EUR 0.59 (~CAD 0.93), investors could benefit from massive upside potential of 786% over the next few years, based on the current share price of EUR 0.08 (~CAD 0.12) per share.
BASF: Is the Jump in Earnings Enough for a Trend Reversal?
BASF shares (WKN: BASF11 | ISIN: DE000BASF111 | Ticker: BAS) are gaining new momentum thanks to surprisingly strong quarterly results. The chemical company exceeded expectations in the second quarter of 2026 and raised its full-year forecast. However, it remains to be seen whether this will lead to a sustainable turnaround on the stock market. Revenue rose 16% year-over-year to EUR 17.2 billion, exceeding the expected EUR 16.5 billion. The breakdown is particularly positive. Higher prices contributed 11%, while sales volumes increased by 7%. Currency and portfolio effects each had a negative impact of 1%.
As a result, the operating picture has brightened significantly compared to the first quarter. At that time, revenue had declined by 3% to EUR 16.0 billion. Rising volumes were unable to offset price and currency pressures. In the second quarter, BASF benefited simultaneously from higher prices and stronger sales volumes. EBITDA before special items is expected to reach EUR 2.4 billion. Analysts had anticipated only EUR 2.1 billion, following EUR 1.6 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. With the exception of Surface Technologies, results improved across all segments. Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Agricultural Solutions, in particular, exceeded expectations.
Although net income jumped from EUR 79 million to EUR 4.1 billion, this figure is only of limited significance. It includes a pre-tax gain on disposal of EUR 3.9 billion from the Coatings transaction with Carlyle. The cash inflow is nevertheless noteworthy. BASF received approximately EUR 5.8 billion before taxes and retains a 40% stake in the business, now known as Surventis. This increases financial flexibility and could particularly support the planned debt reduction.
In addition, BASF is making progress on cost reductions. By the end of March, annual savings of approximately EUR 1.9 billion had already been achieved. By the end of 2026, this figure is expected to reach about EUR 2.3 billion. This can support earnings, even if the chemicals market does not recover significantly. Management raised its forecast for EBITDA before special items from the previous range of EUR 6.2-7.0 billion to EUR 6.9-7.7 billion.
Free cash flow, however, remains weak, standing at minus EUR 0.2 billion in the second quarter. Higher raw material prices also tied up additional capital.
On the stock market, the situation remains uncertain. BASF currently has a market capitalization of around EUR 42.8 billion. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained about 7%, and over 52 weeks, it has risen by about 10%. It is currently trading at approximately EUR 47.90, just above the 200-day moving average of around EUR 47.50, but below the 50- and 100-day moving averages. A breakout above EUR 50.00 would brighten the chart picture. After that, however, the massive resistance zone around EUR 55 would come into focus. The stock already failed to break through that level in March 2024, March 2025, and April 2026. Below EUR 46, on the other hand, the technical outlook would darken significantly.
The ongoing AI boom has catapulted ASML into a new league on the stock market. Following strong quarterly results, a market capitalization of over USD 1 trillion now even appears possible. However, the high valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
Desert Gold’s stock held up well amid the gold price correction, but the upcoming cash flow from gold production is not even remotely priced into the current share price. As soon as the company begins production and the gold price remains stable or resumes its rally, the stock is likely to be revalued in line with analysts’ estimates.
Fundamental progress at BASF is clearly evident—but a technical breakout is still needed to signal a clear bullish trend.
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