A milestone for Almonty Industries: the tungsten mine in South Korea goes into operation. This positions the raw material gem for strong revenue and earnings growth in the coming years. Analyst estimates are based on significantly lower prices and could therefore be too conservative. The stock is rebounding. Defense stocks are currently being weighed down by the possibility of peace in Ukraine, but order books remain well filled. Shortly before Christmas, RENK is celebrating a million-euro order from the German Armed Forces for various tanks. TKMS has no worries about revenue for the coming years, with an order backlog of EUR 18.5 billion, nearly nine times its annual sales. Analysts recommend buying.
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Almonty Industries: Cash to start rolling in from 2026
A strong reaction from Almonty (TSX:AII) shares! After a weak Nasdaq had stifled an 8% jump in the share price on Wednesday, it rose significantly again yesterday. There are currently numerous reasons for Almonty’s share price to rise.
On Monday, the tungsten producer announced that it would withdraw a securities prospectus (“base prospectus”) that would have enabled further capital measures and would no longer use it. Following the recent capital increase with gross proceeds of around USD 130 million, the Company is currently fully financed. This was naturally well received by investors.
Then, on Tuesday evening, came the long-awaited milestone announcement: ore was mined for the first time from the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea. This means that commercial production can begin. In the first expansion stage, an annual output of 640,000 tons of tungsten ore is planned. Within a few years, the plan is to expand to 1.2 million tons. For Almonty, this means strong revenue growth and likely fantastic margins from 2026 onwards. The mine was planned at prices of USD 200 to 300 per MTU. Currently, the spot price is closer to USD 800, and CEO Lewis Black recently indicated that a rise to USD 1,000 would come as no surprise. Sangdong will also play an important strategic role. The United States, the EU, and South Korea share the goal of becoming more independent in terms of the critical raw material tungsten. China currently covers more than 80% of global tungsten demand and has shown this year that it is happy to use this as leverage. Starting next year, the Sangdong mine will be essential for a new tungsten supply chain for Western countries, thereby reducing China’s potential for blackmail.
Almonty already operates a tungsten mine in Portugal. This mine generated approximately CAD 9 million in revenue in the third quarter, and the Company plans to expand it further. Analysts at Oppenheimer expect massive growth in the coming years. By 2026, the CAD 100 million revenue mark is expected to be easily surpassed. By 2028, it is expected to exceed CAD 600 million. As already described, it should be noted that the analysts’ estimates are based on significantly lower tungsten prices.
There should be no shortage of price drivers for Almonty shares in the coming year: Sangdong is ramping up, Portugal is being expanded, and the recently acquired tungsten mine in the US is set to go into operation. This would mark the first time in a decade that tungsten has been produced in the US. Currently, the country is 100% dependent on imports.
RENK: Orders at the end of the year
Defense stocks trended weaker on hopes for peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine. RENK’s share price is trading at around EUR 53, well below its annual high of EUR 90 at the beginning of October. Too low, in JPMorgan’s view. Analysts recently confirmed their “Overweight” rating. Experts see the fair value at EUR 75.
At the end of the year, the order book is filling up at RENK, a specialist in drive solutions for the military sector. The Company has received orders to supply transmissions for the Puma infantry fighting vehicle, the Büffel armored recovery vehicle, and the Boxer wheeled armored vehicle, which are intended for the German Armed Forces. The total value of the orders is EUR 45 million. RENK emphasizes that the orders will significantly increase the operational capability of the armed forces.
“Against the backdrop of new NATO capability requirements and the initiated build-up of forces, we are focusing on reliably meeting our customers’ growing demand for vehicle platforms with high-quality drive components,” said Michael Masur, CEO Vehicle Mobility Solutions, RENK GmbH. “Our battle-tested drive solutions form the backbone of military mobility and are a key element of European operational capability. We are therefore all the more proud to be making a central contribution to the security and performance of the German Armed Forces.”
TKMS: Strong order backlog
After its celebrated IPO in October, things quietened down somewhat for TKMS shares. In the first few days of trading, the share price briefly reached the EUR 100 mark. Since then, the share price has fallen back to EUR 64.
However, the operational outlook for the future is very positive. As part of the publication of the figures for the 2024/2025 financial year, the Company also reported on its order intake, and the results were impressive. TKMS received EUR 8.8 billion in orders, six times as many as in the previous year. As of September 30, 2025, the order backlog stood at around EUR 18.2 billion, a record level. To put this into context, TKMS generated sales of EUR 2.2 billion in the reporting year. Sales growth for the coming years is already practically guaranteed.
TKMS is aiming for average sales growth of 10% for the coming years, with an upward trend. The Company is targeting an adjusted EBIT margin of 7%.
Following the publication, Deutsche Bank raised its price target for TKMS shares slightly from EUR 80 to EUR 82. Analysts are particularly optimistic about margin development and believe that the Company may even exceed its targets.
Almonty is likely to continue its wave of success in the coming year. In view of the revenue and earnings opportunities, and also in comparison to MP Materials, the share currently appears to be anything but expensive. The defense stocks TKMS and RENK are weighed down by the possibility of peace in Ukraine. However, the order books are well filled for the coming years.
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