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Between 2019 and 2021, investors in BioNTech witnessed a prime example of how a strategically relevant product – in this case, the COVID-19 vaccine – became a real stock market rocket thanks to government pressure, political support, and high public expectations. During this period, the share price rose from less than EUR 12.00 to over EUR 397.00. Those who invested early and were patient were able to achieve returns of over 3,200%. The decisive driver was not only technological innovation but also the government’s determination to have the population vaccinated multiple times, which secured massive revenues for BioNTech. Today, a strikingly similar scenario is emerging with Almonty Industries (WKN: A1JSSD | ISIN: CA0203981034 | Ticker symbol: (TSX:AII)) – only this time it is not about vaccines, but about the strategic raw material tungsten, which is indispensable for defense, aerospace, electronics, and mechanical engineering.
Tungsten: Few alternatives, but growing demand
Currently, 90% of the world’s tungsten supply comes from China. Sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and growing security concerns are driving tungsten prices upward almost weekly. At the same time, remaining stocks from conflict-free regions are shrinking. Experts expect that Western buyers could panic once these stocks are depleted. This is because tungsten is a key factor in the defense capabilities of nations. Without tungsten, there would be no tanks, no aircraft, and no precision weapons.
Political pressure to become independent of Chinese supply chains is growing rapidly – and this is precisely where the parallel with BioNTech lies: back then, the state had to provide vaccines; today, it has to make provisions for critical raw materials such as tungsten.
Almonty Industries: From survivalist to monopolist
Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) has survived the decades-long price war that drove many Western tungsten producers into bankruptcy. The Company secured its survival through minimum-price offtake agreements for its Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Almonty is now applying this expertise to the development of the Sangdong mine in South Korea, one of the largest tungsten projects outside China. The local infrastructure has been completed, and production is expected to begin shortly in 2025.
By multiplying its current production volumes, Almonty will be able to meet the demand of many Western industries. With the Sangdong mine, the Company could effectively become the Western monopolist for tungsten. The potential for a significant share price increase is correspondingly high – comparable to the massive upswing at BioNTech when it became clear that the vaccine would receive government backing, regardless of its actual efficacy.
Valuation: MP Materials as a comparison
By way of comparison, US-based MP Materials, which specializes in rare earths, is valued at USD 5.37 billion. Almonty, on the other hand, is currently valued at only around USD 0.9 billion – even though it is in the process of establishing itself as the only significant Western tungsten producer. Should the anticipated NASDAQ listing materialize, the share price could undergo a revaluation to better reflect the strategic importance of the Company.
Conclusion: Never sell too early!
Tungsten is no less systemically important than vaccines in the pandemic – for Western countries, it is essential for national security. Almonty Industries (WKN: A1JSSD | ISIN: CA0203981034 | Ticker symbol: ALI) offers investors a rare opportunity to participate in this strategic trend. Anyone who made the mistake of selling BioNTech too early knows that patience can pay off when it comes to politically relevant issues – and Almonty could become the BioNTech of critical metals.
Conflict of interest
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