- AI token pricing has fallen sharply since May, easing some concerns around the rising cost of large language models.
- Historical seasonality suggests both the TSX and S&P 500 could remain relatively firm into September before entering a typically weaker autumn period.
- Gold’s seasonal backdrop is strengthening as gold stocks begin rotating from lagging toward improving, while software and semiconductors continue to move in opposite directions.
Gold catches Bruce Campbell’s attention as summer rolls on
The dog days of summer may be here, but underneath relatively calm markets, several potentially important shifts are beginning to emerge.
In this week’s Markets in Motion, Stonecastle Investment Management portfolio manager Bruce Campbell looks at market seasonality, volatility and sector rotation, while also highlighting falling AI costs and the seasonal return of corporate share buybacks following earnings season.
This article is being disseminated on behalf of Stonecastle Investment Management, a third-party issuer and is intended for informational purposes only.
Historically, both the TSX and S&P 500 have tended to remain relatively strong through the summer before weakening around September and October. Campbell stresses that seasonality should be treated more like climate than weather: it provides historical context rather than a prediction of what markets will do this year.
Current volatility signals are also diverging from the usual seasonal pattern. While volatility often begins increasing around this point in the summer, several volatility indices tracked by Campbell are now moving lower following July’s increase. Oil remains a notable exception.
Gold could be one area worth watching. Its historical seasonality strengthens during the second half of the year, while Campbell’s relative rotation analysis shows a broad group of gold stocks beginning to move from the lagging quadrant toward improving.
Elsewhere, semiconductors and software continue to move in opposite directions, while copper stocks are also emerging as an area to watch as investors assess where the next phase of market leadership could develop.
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