It’s arguably a Eureka moment for investors in NervGen Pharma (TSX.V: NGEN) (OTCQB: NGENF).
Tantalizing anecdotal “evidence” has just been published that suggests that NervGen’s prospective wonder-drug — NVG-291– is delivering the goods in a proof-of-concept human clinical trial for patients with a spinal cord injury (SCI).
Patient’s Family Hails a Successful Clinical Trial Outcome
As has been discussed in my previous Stockhouse articles about NervGen, there have been various second-hand reports in online chatrooms which claim that patients in NervGen’s Phase 1b/2a clinical trial are showing remarkable signs of recovery. Even a mysterious online video has been widely viewed as it may represent more anecdotal evidence of a trial patient regaining mobility in his legs.
Suzy Scherb just announced on the website CaringBridge that her son has “dramatically improved” since embarking on the trial, even though it is a double-blind trial which means that the family has not been informed as to whether Clay has been administered the trial drug or a placebo. CaringBridge is a “nonprofit health platform that surrounds family caregivers with support while they care for a loved one on a health journey.”
“…We have celebrated dramatic highs this year,” she posted. “Clay’s recovery we observed during the trial, in addition to other physical signs, led our family to think that Clay was receiving the real drug. We wish we could scream from the mountaintops about Clay’s progress during the trial, but that will come in a future post…”
She also alludes to the fact that trial patients are expected to remain discreet about their progress until the trial is completed. Hence, her family has been silent up until now. But her desire to see her son get continued access to this trial drug caused her to speak out online. “…We believe NVG-291 significantly helped Clay and want him to continue taking the drug…”
The Scherb family has found a regulatory pathway for Clay to continue to take NVG-291 – the Expanded Access Program – and have reached out to the FDA make this happen. The post continued, “This FDA Expanded Access Program is designed for patients who have benefited from a clinical trial but are unable to continue receiving the drug. We’re in the initial stages of this process, but we are optimistic.”
Once again, here’s a link to the actual post which had a concluding remark “We look forward to sharing news about Clay’s continued journey of recovery.”: https://www.caringbridge.org/site/9296f6ac-fd25-3f9e-ae12-a84a95010608/post/b858790f-c348-4911-a4fa-6e1b77f00eb5
How a Picture (or Video) is Worth a Thousand Words
The video was originally posted by a cousin of an SCI patient who has been receiving conventional physical therapy at Shirley Ryan while the clinical trial has been taking place. It has since been reposted elsewhere, having garnered over 7,000 views to date.
The video is certainly worth watching. Keep in mind that the trial’s 20 test subjects (with enrolment still ongoing) have to demonstrate beforehand that they are barely able to take a single step. So the video may indeed represent a visual corroboration of the kind of recovery that Suzy Scherb says her son has experienced.
Investment Summary
NervGen is expected to announce the “readout” (final assessment) of the trial results within 120 days of the enrolment of the last patient. This means that it will likely be spring of next year when the trial’s outcome for all 20 patients is announced. So the countdown to this pivotal event will begin once NervGen announces that trial enrolment is complete – hopefully within the next few weeks.
In the eventuality of positive results, then the share price is very likely to see a significant re-rating to the upside. In my opinion, it’s a good bet that this will happen, based on what we’ve heard to date about trial patients regaining mobility in their legs. In fact, the company and trial patients, alike, are seemingly struggling to keep a lid on explosively positive news as the trial winds down. This bodes particularly well for investors who do not want to wait for the trial readout to make their move.
In the interim, the stock has yet to break out from within a long-standing CDN $2-4 (US $1.50 -$3) trading range. Therefore, new investors haven’t missed the boat. However, super-cautious investors who choose to wait for the readout are likely to pay the price for waiting too long.
For example, consider Longboard Pharmaceuticals, which recently announced positive results from its phase 1b/2a clinical trial for a drug candidate that treats epilepsies. Hence, the company was just acquired for US $2.6 billion by a Danish pharmaceutical last October. Yet as recently as August 2023, the stock was trading at around US $6. This was at the time it announced completion of enrolment of patients. A few months later, the buyout allowed Longboard investors to cash out at $60 a share – a spectacular ten-fold ROI. Of note to investors, Longboard’s Chief Medical Officer was Dr. Randall Kaye who is also a Director of Nervgen, as well as Chair of its Science Committee.
Clearly, 2025 promises to be a big breakout year for NervGen. It bears repeating that investors who don’t own NervGen haven’t missed the boat — yet. But it seems just a matter of time before the winning feeling that Clay Scherb and his family are experiencing is shared by NervGen’s loyal legion of investors – some of whom are SCI patients themselves.
Stay tuned. This surely seems to be a standout success story in the making.
Disclosure:
The author of this article or members of his household or family, do not own shares in NervGen at this time. However, he may from time to time buy or sell shares in companies that are profiled in his various investment articles. Additionally, he is not compensated by the company directly or indirectly. His commentary is therefore based solely on his personal research and understanding of the life sciences sector. It is not intended as investment advice.
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