Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) releases August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll showing narrow midterm split and 44% Trump approval
Stagwell News: Key Takeaways
- Stagwell reported results from the August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll of 2,100 registered U.S. voters (fielded Aug. 28-30, 2026).
- President Donald Trump’s approval rating was 44%, up 2 points from July; highest-rated issue areas were fighting crime (48%) and immigration (47%), and lowest were inflation (37%) and tariffs and trade (38%).
- For the 2026 congressional midterms, the generic ballot among general voters was 51-49 with Democrats ahead by 2 points, while the lead flipped to Republicans by 2 points among likely midterm voters.
- 69% of voters said they plan to vote in the 2026 midterms; 46% said their vote is decided, 27% said they are leaning but could change their mind, and 19% said they are undecided.
- Sentiment indicators ticked up: 37% said the country is on the right track (+2 vs. July), 48% said the economy is strong (+2), and 32% said their personal financial situation is improving (+2).
- Issue attitudes highlighted in the poll included 56% saying AI is more of an economic problem than a solution, 58% expecting it to create tens of millions of unemployed people, and 55% saying social media is being manipulated by foreign powers to affect elections.
What Happened?
Stagwell released the August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and The Harris Poll and HarrisX. The company highlighted a small month-over-month improvement in President Donald Trump’s job approval to 44% (up 2 points from July), with the strongest ratings on crime (48%) and immigration (47%), and weaker ratings on inflation (37%) and tariffs and trade (38%).
On the 2026 midterm elections, the poll showed a closely divided electorate: Democrats led 51-49 among general voters, while Republicans led by 2 points among likely midterm voters. The survey found 69% of voters say they plan to vote, and fewer than half (46%) say their vote is already decided, with an additional 27% leaning but potentially changeable and 19% undecided. Reported planned voting methods included 40% in-person on Election Day, 24% in-person before Election Day, and 19% by absentee or mail-in ballot.
The release also cited modest improvements in broader sentiment, including increases in the share saying the country is on the right track (37%), the economy is strong (48%), and personal finances are improving (32%). Party approval in the poll was 45% for the Republican Party and 47% for the Democratic Party, with congressional approval at 34%.
On policy and issue attitudes, the company said 10 out of 13 Trump policy positions tested in the poll had majority support, with the highest support for lowering prescription drug prices (84%), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (74%), and requiring proof of citizenship to vote (70%). The least popular positions listed included a 15% tariff on imports from all countries (40%), allowing immigration authorities to access information on low-income families (48%), and eliminating mail-in voting (50%).
The poll results included views on AI, media, U.S.-Canada trade, and Middle East conflicts. The release reported 56% see AI as more of a problem for the economy, 38% said they rely on social media for political information (vs. 31% network news and 23% cable TV), and 55% said social media is being manipulated by foreign powers to affect elections. On U.S.-Canada trade, 67% said the two countries should reach a new trade agreement and 62% expected a 50% tariff on Canadian goods would raise prices. On the U.S.-Iran conflict, 66% said it is likely there will be an uprising of the Iranian people in the next six months due to current U.S. economic and military pressure.
Company Commentary
"Voters are feeling slightly more optimistic across the board, with Trump, Democratic, and GOP approval on the up," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "They recognize the weight of the upcoming midterm elections and want to hear from their politicians on inflation, fraud, and AI."
Why This Matters for Investors
For Stagwell, the release underscores the company’s involvement in recurring, high-profile public opinion research through The Harris Poll and HarrisX, including survey work that tracks voter sentiment on elections and policy issues. The data may be relevant context for investors assessing demand for polling, analytics, and communications-related services in a politically active cycle.
The poll results also point to elevated voter attention on inflation, trade, AI, and geopolitical risk, which can shape the broader business environment and campaign and advocacy messaging priorities. The survey’s finding of a closely split midterm electorate, with a large share of voters not fully decided, suggests continued intensity around political communications through the 2026 midterm cycle.
