- In 1978, sportswriter Leonard Koppett noticed that the Super Bowl champions could reasonably predict the upcoming stock market as a bear or bull
- AFC team win equals a bear market, NFC team win equals a bull market
- As of the end of 2022, the indicator has been correct 41 out of 56 times, on the S&P index
- Before the dotcom years (1998-2001) the Super Bowl Indicator had a 90 per cent success rate in predicting the up-or-down outcome of the S&P 500
With Super Bowl LVIII fast approaching, we felt it was time to unpack the question, “What is the Super Bowl Indicator in the stock market?”
A correlation between the National Football League’s Super Bowl winners’ conference and whether the upcoming year was a bull or a bear market was identified back in 1978.
This interesting and non-scientific indicator was spotted by New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett, who wrote for three major New York dailies over nearly four decades. Koppett’s Super Bowl Indicator theory is that a win by an American Football Conference team will predict a bear market, and a win by an National Football Conference team will mean a bull market.
Super Bowl Indicator success
The indicator had a 73 percent success rate as of the end of 2022. Before the dotcom years (1998-2001), the Super Bowl Indicator had a 90 per cent success rate in predicting the up-or-down outcome of the S&P 500.
As correlation does not equal causation, this is a “fun” indicator that might give you one more thing to bet on during Super Bowl weekend. This goes along with other indicators, such as the Santa Claus Rally.
And one interesting fact is the indicator counts the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team tied with the New England Patriots with an NFL-leading six Super Bowl championships, for the NFC. That’s because the team was an original NFL franchise in 1933, even though the Steelers have been in the AFC for all of their Super Bowl victories.
The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. For full disclaimer information, please click here.
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