Following the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities using bunker-busting weapons, the war continues. On Sunday night, Israel bombed the entrance to a prison, among other targets, without destroying buildings containing prisoners. Israel is thus emphasizing that it is not waging war against the Persian people but against the theocratic regime of the mullahs. However, a regime change in Iran currently seems unlikely. It is much more likely that Iran’s retaliation will target US soldiers stationed at the many American bases in the region, making further escalation almost inevitable. The US military would then be drawn deeper into the conflict. One company whose products are essential for the manufacture of bunker-busting weapons, ammunition, and armor could benefit from this scenario: Almonty Industries.
Years of preparation: Almonty is the only relevant Western tungsten producer
For many years, the shares of Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) were only known to a select few. The tungsten producer has a producing mine in Portugal, further projects in Spain, and the Sangdong giant tungsten project in South Korea, which is nearing completion. Years ago, the Austrian Plansee Group became a minority shareholder in Almonty Industries, which is led by experienced company builder and tungsten expert Lewis Black. Black recognized early on that tungsten could be the next big thing – in interviews with CNBC and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) in recent months, Black repeatedly emphasized how dominant China has become in the tungsten market over the past decades. Today, Russia, North Korea, and China together account for around 90% of capacity. This holds enormous potential for blackmail against industries that can hardly do without this unique element in defense, aviation, medical technology, electronics, semiconductors, and batteries. It is not without reason that tungsten has been classified as a critical raw material by both the EU Commission and the US Geological Survey. In 2023, the US government even introduced tariffs on tungsten – despite the fact there was no domestic industry in place at the time. For visionary Lewis Black, these tariffs were a clear signal: time for greater diversification and Western self-sufficiency.
Almonty CEO Lewis Black knows how it works – and is investing USD 13 million himself
With the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the continuing unresolved situation in Ukraine, pressure on the US to secure access to tungsten remains high. Almonty’s Sangdong mine, which is scheduled to begin production in South Korea this summer, will meet this demand. Just a few weeks ago, the US House of Representatives wrote a letter to Almonty emphasizing the importance of Almonty’s tungsten for US national interests. For Almonty CEO Lewis Black, this is a unique development. The Company CEO, who successfully sold a tungsten project for 21 times the capital investment several years ago and has invested around USD 13 million of his own money in Almonty Industries, now believes the time has come for returns.
In a recent podcast, Black pointed out that Almonty Industries is not only the only new tungsten mine outside China in the right place at the right time but that the framework conditions at his company are also unique. The long-standing shareholder base of Almonty Industries shares a strong belief in the Company’s success and is said to be “in the money.” There is no significant dilution or selling pressure from shares granted to service providers with short holding periods. In addition, the management team and its expertise in tungsten and molybdenum – which Almonty will, among other things, supply to a SpaceX contractor – are considered unique.
Tungsten: Production costs in China three times higher than in South Korea – analysts rejoice!
As Black makes clear, the Company has the most modern tungsten laboratory in Portugal and aims to become an integrated tungsten company within two years, which will also refine the coveted raw material. In addition to mining, which benefits significantly from experienced teams, the further processing of tungsten is also considered complex. According to Black, those who do not know how to handle the element can hardly be competitive, pointing out that production costs in China are now three times higher than in South Korea. Almonty Industries is now also among the high flyers on the stock market – in 2025 alone, its share price has risen by more than 200%.
According to analysts, this high-flying performance is not over yet. Almonty’s outstanding market position and excellent delivery conditions suggest its share price will continue to rise. According to MarketScreener, the consensus from four analysts sees a median target price of CAD 4.77, representing an upside potential of 51%. The highest target price quoted by analysts is as high as CAD 5.50.
GBU-57 bunker buster: Special alloy cannot do without tungsten
Since Almonty is now being offered minimum prices but no price cap for tungsten and molybdenum, the stock also offers potential. Almonty is likely to benefit 1:1 if prices for tungsten and other metals continue to rise. Most recently, tungsten prices rose significantly in double digits in Europe, the US, and South Korea. Analysts at Technavio expect the tungsten market to grow by 7.4% annually until 2029. As the only company to launch a new offering in a geopolitically stable region this summer, Almonty Industries is likely to benefit. The ace up its sleeve is the potential doubling of production in Sangdong. According to Lewis Black, this is already possible with an investment of USD 17 million thanks to preparatory work that has already been carried out and the good infrastructure on site.
Almonty Industries’ shares already score highly with unparalleled liquidity: around 1.5 to 2.5 million shares are traded daily. The planned listing on the US Nasdaq stock exchange this summer will make the key supplier of US defense raw materials accessible to even more investors. Almonty Industries shares offer a stable investment case in a geopolitically uncertain time and a well-established framework that has been in place for years – tungsten is irreplaceable both in the recently deployed bunker-busting GBU-57 super weapon and in many other military products. Given the unique conditions and the sideways consolidation that has been ongoing for weeks, the next price surge is in the air.
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